Entropic Priors

The method of Maximum (relative) Entropy (ME) is used to translate the information contained in the known form of the likelihood into a prior distribution for Bayesian inference. The argument is guided by intuition gained from the successful use of ME methods in statistical mechanics. For experiments that cannot be repeated the resulting "entropic prior" is formally identical with the Einstein fluctuation formula. For repeatable experiments, however, the expected value of the entropy of the likelihood turns out to be relevant information that must be included in the analysis. As an example the entropic prior for a Gaussian likelihood is calculated.Comment: Presented at MaxEnt'03, the 23d International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods (August 3-8, 2003, Jackson Hole, WY, USA

Digital Interventions for Problematic Cannabis Users in Non-Clinical Settings: Findings from a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Existing cannabis treatment programs reach only a very limited proportion of people with cannabis-related problems. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the effectiveness of digital interventions applied outside the health care system in reducing problematic cannabis use. Methods: We systematically searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (2015), PubMed (2009-2015), Medline (2009-2015), Google Scholar (2015) and article reference lists for potentially eligible studies. Randomized controlled trials examining the effects of internet-or computer-based interventions were assessed. Study effects were estimated by calculating effect sizes (ESs) using Cohen's d and Hedges' g bias-corrected ES. The primary outcome assessed was self-reported cannabis use, measured by a questionnaire. Results: Fifty-two studies were identified. Four studies (including 1,928 participants) met inclusion criteria. They combined brief motivational interventions and cognitive behavioral therapy delivered on-line. All studies were of good quality. The pooled mean difference (Delta = 4.07) and overall ES (0.11) give evidence of small effects at 3-month follow-up in favor of digital interventions. Conclusions: Digital interventions can help to successfully reduce problematic cannabis use outside clinical settings. They have some potential to overcome treatment barriers and increase accessibility for at-risk cannabis users. (C) 2016 S. Karger AG, Base

Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Data Analysis: Entropic Priors

The problem of assigning probability distributions which objectively reflect the prior information available about experiments is one of the major stumbling blocks in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this paper the method of Maximum (relative) Entropy (ME) is used to translate the information contained in the known form of the likelihood into a prior distribution for Bayesian inference. The argument is inspired and guided by intuition gained from the successful use of ME methods in statistical mechanics. For experiments that cannot be repeated the resulting "entropic prior" is formally identical with the Einstein fluctuation formula. For repeatable experiments, however, the expected value of the entropy of the likelihood turns out to be relevant information that must be included in the analysis. The important case of a Gaussian likelihood is treated in detail.Comment: 23 pages, 2 figure

The Cutaneous Rabbit Illusion Affects Human Primary Sensory Cortex Somatotopically

We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to study neural correlates of a robust somatosensory illusion that can dissociate tactile perception from physical stimulation. Repeated rapid stimulation at the wrist, then near the elbow, can create the illusion of touches at intervening locations along the arm, as if a rabbit hopped along it. We examined brain activity in humans using fMRI, with improved spatial resolution, during this version of the classic cutaneous rabbit illusion. As compared with control stimulation at the same skin sites (but in a different order that did not induce the illusion), illusory sequences activated contralateral primary somatosensory cortex, at a somatotopic location corresponding to the filled-in illusory perception on the forearm. Moreover, the amplitude of this somatosensory activation was comparable to that for veridical stimulation including the intervening position on the arm. The illusion additionally activated areas of premotor and prefrontal cortex. These results provide direct evidence that illusory somatosensory percepts can affect primary somatosensory cortex in a manner that corresponds somatotopically to the illusory percept

Common Genetic Variants Contribute to Risk of Transposition of the Great Arteries

Rationale: Dextro-transposition of the great arteries (D-TGA) is a severe congenital heart defect which affects approximately 1 in 4,000 live births. While there are several reports of D-TGA patients with rare variants in individual genes, the majority of D-TGA cases remain genetically elusive. Familial recurrence patterns and the observation that most cases with D-TGA are sporadic suggest a polygenic inheritance for the disorder, yet this remains unexplored. Objective: We sought to study the role of common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in risk for D-TGA. Methods and Results: We conducted a genome-wide association study in an international set of 1,237 patients with D-TGA and identified a genome-wide significant susceptibility locus on chromosome 3p14.3, which was subsequently replicated in an independent case-control set (rs56219800, meta-analysis P=8.6x10-10, OR=0.69 per C allele). SNP-based heritability analysis showed that 25% of variance in susceptibility to D-TGA may be explained by common variants. A genome-wide polygenic risk score derived from the discovery set was significantly associated to D-TGA in the replication set (P=4x10-5). The genome-wide significant locus (3p14.3) co-localizes with a putative regulatory element that interacts with the promoter of WNT5A, which encodes the Wnt Family Member 5A protein known for its role in cardiac development in mice. We show that this element drives reporter gene activity in the developing heart of mice and zebrafish and is bound by the developmental transcription factor TBX20. We further demonstrate that TBX20 attenuates Wnt5a expression levels in the developing mouse heart. Conclusions: This work provides support for a polygenic architecture in D-TGA and identifies a susceptibility locus on chromosome 3p14.3 near WNT5A. Genomic and functional data support a causal role of WNT5A at the locus